According to a study published by EurotaxGlass, market share * of the electric car will be between 9 and 13% in Europe in 2020 (between 1 and 1.6 million vehicles). Dammit ... The adoption of alternative energies would be faster than expected, especially in Britain and France, if one refers to this document "new alternative powertrain study" which you can read a summary (in English ) by following this link:
http://www.eurotax.com/index.php?p=mc_pressrel&l=encm&n=2
What justifies such optimism? According EurotaxGlass, who led the study with BDW Automotive ** in 5 countries, the regulatory environment (130 g CO2 per km in 2012, 95 g in 2020) and tax incentives (including the bonus of 5000 € in France and in several countries), coupled with innovative packages around the vehicle and the battery could convince motorists to move more quickly to power.
The key argument is the TCO (Total Cost of Ownership), said the overall cost of the vehicle: a well-established companies for fleets, but that individuals do not know.
This last point is strategic. In an obvious way, maintenance will be significantly reduced compared with a thermal model, since - apart from the tires and wear parts classic - there are no mechanical parts. Then, the solutions to be proposed to lease the batteries and secure will affect the economic model. Thus, we know that Renault will lease the batteries to a monthly rent of 100 Euros and will guarantee them for several years (up to 5 years prior, he believed Le Figaro). This beautiful table does not hide however the remaining value of electric vehicles will be worse than for a heat medium, due to a starting price much higher.
Why I do not believe it: despite the efforts of some manufacturers to lower prices (we are talking about € 15,000 to the Zoe while Leaf will cost 30,000!), States can not ever help the automobile sector, especially in this period of retrenchment where priorities lie elsewhere. It must also take into account the inertia of the customer, who will wait to see the arrival of vehicles on the market and be the first returns of those who wipe the plaster. The scenario may therefore be that of a gradual adoption, as the study plans for Spain and Italy (Germany lies between the two groups of countries).
But in fact, that is EurotaxGlass? This company specializes in providing information (including prices of new vehicles and options, plus the cost of repairs) and advice for the automotive industry (intelligence). Does it provide authority for the future of the electric car? Not more than those which provide a brighter future ... But it is credible cost. It is here where the constructors will have to refine their strategy, instead of the media hubbub that only serves to confuse the message.
EurotaxGlass must present the synthesis of this study at a luncheon held next September 16 in Paris at the initiative of autoactu.com site.
* It is the electric car in all its forms, including with range extender.
** France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Great Britain
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